An end to the war with Iran would not guarantee a rapid drop in gasoline prices in the United States. Although President Donald Trump claimed in May that prices would fall “like a rock,” energy sector analysts maintain that the market does not work at that speed.
The main reason is logistical and also geopolitical. Gas station prices depend on global crude flow, refining capacity, and the time it takes for oil to reach its destination.
Before the conflict, the national average for regular gasoline was around $2.98 per gallon. Following the start of joint attacks by the United States and Israel against Iran on February 28, the national average rose to near $4.52 per gallon, according to data cited by the AAA and reports from Newsweek.
Why Would the End of War Not Be Enough?
The problem is not limited to announcing a ceasefire. Experts warn that the market needs something more concrete: the full normalization of petroleum transit through the Strait of Hormuz, a key route for global supply.
About one-fifth of the world’s transported oil typically passes through that maritime corridor. When that flow is reduced, pressure increases on international crude prices and, consequently, on the gasoline that drivers pay.
According to analyst Patrick De Haan of GasBuddy, the only truly decisive signal would be the complete reopening of the strait to petroleum transport. Even in that scenario, he explained to FactCheck.org, the market would need several weeks to begin reflecting the change.
This means that a formal peace would not immediately translate into relief for families. Ships must resume routes, load crude, arrive at ports, supply refineries, and then move fuel to retail commerce.
That is why several specialists believe that pre-war levels would not return this year. Denton Cinquegrana, chief analyst at OPIS, a Dow Jones firm cited by Newsweek, stated that consumers can bid farewell to the price of $2.98 per gallon for the rest of 2026.
What Role Does the Strait of Hormuz Play?
The Strait of Hormuz connects key Gulf producers with international markets. If that passage is interrupted or operates at partial capacity, petroleum becomes more expensive because supply becomes more uncertain. This impact is not felt only in the Middle East. It also reaches gas stations in the United States.
