The race for California’s governorship has entered a critical phase following the release of the latest voting intention data. Former U.S. Secretary of Health Xavier Becerra has emerged as the frontrunner in the contest ahead of the June primary. According to a poll released this Wednesday by Emerson College Polling, the electoral landscape in the “Golden State” appears extremely competitive. No candidate has yet managed to consolidate a definitive advantage that would decisively separate him from his main political rivals.
Becerra has an extensive track record in public service that supports his current polling position. Before joining the federal cabinet, he served as California’s attorney general and represented a state district in Congress for more than 20 years. Currently, the Democratic contender registers 19% of voting intention among likely voters. This percentage gives him a slight edge over Republican commentator Steve Hilton and Democratic billionaire Tom Steyer.
Becerra’s rise responds not only to his experience but also to a dramatic reconfiguration of the electoral landscape. The departure of former congressman Eric Swalwell last month significantly altered voter preferences. Swalwell, who had previously led the polls, resigned from his position and the race after facing serious sexual abuse allegations. This leadership vacuum on the progressive wing allowed other candidates to capture the interest of voters seeking a solid option.
How did Eric Swalwell’s departure affect Becerra’s lead?
The impact of Swalwell’s withdrawal has been the most determining factor in Xavier Becerra’s exponential growth over the past two months. In March 2026, Becerra had barely 3% support in opinion polls. Following allegations filed by several women against the former congressman, the former Secretary of Health capitalized on much of the Democratic support. Moving from single digits to leading the list with 19% demonstrates rapid consolidation of his electoral base in record time.
Becerra aspires to make history by becoming California’s first Latino governor since 1875. His background as the son of Mexican immigrants resonates deeply in a state where the Hispanic community is the largest ethnic group. This demographic connection, combined with his profile as an expert in health and justice policies, positions him as a high-profile candidate. However, the competition is fierce and polling margins of error keep the outcome uncertain.
The current race shows a technical three-way tie at the top of the preference rankings. Both Republican Steve Hilton and businessman Tom Steyer maintain solid 17% support each. This means the difference between first and third place is just two percentage points. In a primary system where only the top two vote-getters advance to the general election, every vote counts to secure a spot in November.
What is the voting system that defines California’s future in June?
California uses a primary system known as “top-two,” which differs from that of most states in the country. In this format, all candidates appear on the same ballot, regardless of their party affiliation. The two candidates who receive the most votes in June will advance directly to the November general election. This opens the possibility that two Democrats or two Republicans could end up facing each other in the final stage.
Below the leading group, other candidates are trying to gain ground to squeeze into the top two spots. Riverside County Sheriff Chad Bianco represents one of the strongest Republican options with 11% support. For her part, former congresswoman Katie Porter, known for her direct style on Capitol Hill, maintains 10% of voting intention. The fragmentation of the vote suggests that undecided voters will determine the final outcome in the coming weeks.
The Emerson College Polling survey highlights that public safety and the cost of living remain top concerns for California voters.
